Besides spawning the richest peacetime armaments industry in history, the atomic bomb fueled the growth of a quasi-academic field called “strategic thought,” which while sounding like something everyone would love to have from time to time is actually the quintessence of arm-chair generaling. It refers to theorizing about the actual or threatened use of nuclear weapons in war. Since they have only been used on two occasions, at the very end of World War II, this hardly qualifies as an evidence-based intellectual exercise. It thrives on complex imaginary scenarios, which means that over the decades it has attracted more than its share of independent charlatans and tenured professors, as well as quite a few over-educated journalists. (I have found myself in the last category for the past 40 years.) Today, strategic thought burbled up out of the think tanks where it has traditionally flourished to reach the front page of the New York Times, perhaps the last news organization that employs reporters old enough to think it’s interesting. Readers are informed that President Obama is “unlikely” to announce that the United States will never start a nuclear war. What? And why not? A few paragraphs of stock paranoia about Russia and China and North Korea, which infect the paper almost every day, are all that curious readers get.
Let it be noted here that university library shelves sag under the weight of books about no-first-use nuclear policies (most of them decades out of print, with no discernible effect on actual military operations), that major nuclear powers including China and India have official no-first-use statements (as did the Soviet Union, until Russia dumped the pledge after NATO grabbed conventional military superiority in the 1990’s), and that the main obstacle to a treaty among nuclear weapon states that would commit them never to be the first to use nuclear weapons, which 1995 Nobel Peace Laureate Joseph Rotblat rightly said “would open the way to the gradual, mutual reductions of nuclear arsenals, down to zero,” remains the United States.
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