For anyone enamored of the expanding universe of “alternative facts,” the Air Force/Lockheed-Martin F-35 program is an endless summer. Donald Trump evidently smelled the roses and today announced $600 million of cost savings for the next production run, called Lot 10. But in the topsy-turvy world of F-35 development, where the technology never works as advertised and must be corrected while planes continue to roll off the assembly line, these aircraft will be succeeded by “upgraded” (i.e., fixed) models, known as Block 4. He was free to pick any dollar figure out of thin air, really, because no one knows how much the dreamboats actually cost. Maybe a few green-eyeshades somewhere in the bowels of Lockheed can get close, but even that might be wishful thinking. From the most recent GAO attempt (April 2016):
“DOD does not currently plan to manage Block 4 as a separate program with its own acquisition program baseline but rather as part of the existing baseline. As a result, Block 4 will not be subject to key statutory and regulatory oversight requirements, such as providing Congress with regular, formal reports on program cost and schedule performance. A similar approach was initially followed on the F-22 Raptor modernization program, making it difficult to separate the performance and cost of the modernization from the baseline program. Best practices recommend an incremental approach in which new development efforts are structured and managed as separate acquisition programs with their own requirements and acquisition program baselines. The F-22 eventually adopted this approach. If the Block 4 effort is not established as a separate acquisition program, transparency will be limited. Therefore, it will be difficult for Congress to hold it accountable for achieving its cost, schedule, and performance requirements.”
In other words, good luck trying to fact-check the shyster-in-chief on this one.
Update 1/31: The Washington Post at least gives him 4 Pinocchios, but history amply shows that taking Air Force/Lockheed’s word on F-35 cost keeps you deep inside the alternative cosmos.
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